房地产泡沫破裂的后果分析

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摘要:房地产泡沫的破裂首先对银行产生巨大的危害,通过对包括香港在内的22个 工业 化国家和地产的住房市场及股市的热潮和衰落的 研究 ,我们发现住房价格下跌更可能使银行受到打击,原因是在多数国家,银行主导着购房贷款业务。但是房地产泡沫所带来的灾难远不止停留在银行的层面上。
关键词:房地产泡沫;泡沫破裂; 经济 危机; 政治 危机; 社会 危机

一、房地产泡沫破裂诱发经济危机

(一)生产萎缩
(二)消费锐减
(三)经济增速下降
二、房地产泡沫破裂还可能引发政治和社会危机

香港房地产泡沫破灭亦同样令百业萧条,失业率上升,但香港的经济基础较坚稳,社会福利保障亦较其它东南亚国家完善,尽管民怨日深,但始终没有造成太大的社会动荡。在图4为由1997年4月至2005年3月香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度走趋比较,不难发现董建华自出任特首开始,支特度一直下跌,与楼价走势相似,但波动幅度较细,支特度长期在50以下,而2003年7月期间更一度跌至40以下。
图5为香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度的相关度 分析 ,我们可以见到在楼价由55至95之区间,正相关度较高,高于或低于此区间,相关度较低,反映民意认为某些环境不是特区政府或董建华所能控制的,例如亚洲 金融 风暴或非典疫情令房价下跌,说明香港民意是有理智的。




三、 总结

readers. Traumatized by the rape of Sethe and the ma-ternal violation,Halle gradually loses his mind.Hisselfhood shatters.He smeared that butter on his face,Sethe thinks,because the milk they took from her ison his mind eventually.Those complex factors drivehim in mental disorder as most mad people do. Even,he disappears from the community for permanent es-cape from the trauma, the mortal ruin rather than per-manent safety.
Passive victims Surviving victims
Paul D is one of the enslaved in Sweet Home, where Sethe and Halle is enslaved.Unlike Sethebounding herself in 124 after all hardships,he expe- riences more,combed with all hardships and arduous self-reorganization.
His"tobacco tin"caused by former trauma is aroused by Beloved,who literally manipulates him, making him physically restless and forcing him to sleep with her in the shed outside the house.Though Paul D's hatred for Beloved never ceases,their strange,dreamlike sexual encounters open the lid of his"tobacco tin"heart,allowing him to remember, feel,and love again.The traumatic awaking plays a role again when he temporarily retreats after learning Sethe murdering her child."He must work out of a condition of psychic fragmentation——his selfhood has been severely impaired, his status as a human subject denied by the slave culture".
When he decides to returns to Sethe and her fearful, murderous love, he tries to reconstruct future. He has the capacity to lead Sethe out of her narcissis- tic isolation and into relationship with the external world. "He is able to salvage out of the wreckage bol- stering faith in both self and other.He tries to pass this faith on to Sethe at the end."His fingers holding hers,he told Sethe that Sethe herself was her best thing instead of Beloved. His faith indicates the initia-tives of dealing with trauma.He successfully does it, and so does Sethe as he wishes.The scene between them at the end comes closest to the state of mutual recognition and attunement by Paul D's last rescue. His struggle witnesses the victory of beating the trau-ma bequeathed by slavery Besides Paul D,Denver is another character of healing the trauma and achieving maturity after suffer- ing. Though eighteen years old,she acts much younger, maintaining an intense fear of the world out- side 124 and a perilously fragile sense of self. Feeling lonely and exiled,her self-hood develops with the growing of her sense of self. Beloved is combination of pre-Oedipal complex,a child's early (non-sexual) fixation on the mother pri- or to the child's entrance into the Oedipal Complexi-dentified by Freud and maternal hatred,which seem very contradictory.
At the very beginning, Beloved and Denver love each other like a union.When the truth that Beloved is the ghost of Denver's dead sister is revealed, they denies each other for their desire for the same mother. The sense of envy is also pre-Oedipal complex. Under the circumstance,sister-hood gives way to mother- hood.
Paradoxically,Beloved's desire for mother is vengeful due to her trauma of being killed by her own mother. She makes efforts to tortures Sethe mentally as possible as she can.The interaction between Beloved and Sethe is tense and vulnerable like the endurance of a chord. Once Sethe reciprocates Beloved's violent passion for her,the two become locked in a destruc-tive, exclusive,parasitic relationship.
Sometimes,Beloved becomes extremely malevo- lent.The scene in which she almost strangles Sethe, an act that mirrors the way her mother previously sawed through her throat,suggests her extreme hatred on Sethe.Her revenge is practiced by her violence and viciousness:she seduces her mother's lover (Paul D) and attacks Sethe's dog,her house,and Sethe herself. Because mother and daughter have become indistin- guishable by her wretched demands,in which Sethe becomes emaciated while she becomes fat,her attack on Sethe is effectively a form of self-destruction at the same time she ruins Sethe fiercely.By the way, her resentment will be eased little.Her vengeful desire is so poignant that that all are ruined won't satisfy her. She is a cursed ghost,who is not only cursed but also curses the whole.124 is her considerable place,where everything is arranged for her resentment.Her trauma seems incurable because it is frequently deposited and increased for ever like inanition.
More fortunate than Beloved,Sethe is still cur- able although she is almost ruined by the hardships of slavery. What she experiences is the purgatorial suffer- ing, the most severe pain in life.
In the hardships of slavery,unwilling to relin- quish her children to the physical,emotional, and spir- itual trauma she has endured as a slave, she success- fully murders one of her children,which she considers as an act of mother's love and protection.Actually, the deed is the extreme of mother's devotion to her baby, which she repeats and emphasizes for several times in front of others. Her extreme is one of tenden- cy people are likely to have when they are in the posi- tion of possession and losing.She considers her baby as one part of herself,the beautiful part,which she has right to dispose.In the hardest time,the time of despair,she desperately decides the baby's destina- tion by murdering her cruelly.The extreme cruelty lingers on her mind as a trauma in her latter life after the end of the slavery.Afterwards,Sethe's behavior becomes purgatorial.She encloses herself in 124, where she can regret for her cruelty of murdering her baby. She is unable to tell anyone about her past and she is totally enslaved by it.
She is broken down and also cured when she be- comes hysteria in struggle with her trauma,which is unintentionally treated while she is forced by Beloved to recall the unendurable past——stories about her own feelings of abandonment by her mother,about the harshest indignities she suffered at Sweet Home,and about her motivations for murdering her daughter. Her hysteria is confirmed by her actions in the exorcism scene, where she attacks the liberal white man, Ed- ward Bodwin. Freud and Breuer proposed that hysteri- cal symptoms disappear when the memory of the dis- turbing event that first provoked symptoms is recalled and the affect of trauma is aroused.Cure comes through the reproduction of the primal scene of trau- ma, which creates an opportunity for revision of the psychic events that cause the primal trauma.
Sethe trying to kill Bodwin symbolically consti- tutes a restaging of her trauma:the death of her daughter. Bodwin approaches the house to collect Den- ver for work in the same way that schoolteacher ap- proached to recapture his slaves. But this time, Sethe chooses a different course of action.Instead of trying to protect her children by killing them, she flies at Bodwin with an ice pick. For the first time, her protest is directed outward toward the source of oppression, represented by Bodwin (who stands for schoolteacher), rather than taking the form of self-destruction of mur- dering her own children last time. At that moment Beloved disappears. She is also released and saved by mother's hysteria and her desperate response to the same trauma, which the mother and the daughter share for so long.
Only when Sethe learns to confront the past head-on, to assert herself in its presence, can she lib-erates herself from its oppressive power and begin to live freely, peacefully, and responsibly in the present. After the climax,Sethe is extremely exhausted while Paul D eventually returns to the house. When she lies in bed,Paul D gives her hope, gently touching her face: "Me and you, we got more yesterday than any- body…We need some kind of tomorrow.""'You your best thing, Sethe. You are.' His holding fingers are holding hers. 'Me? Me?"Although Sethe is unsure about herself, she begins to recognize that she herself may be the center of her life, rather than the passing baby or the past gone by. She is forgiven not only by Paul D but also by the circles of blacks,who are also the victims of slavery.Her desire and Paul D's are unlocked to envision the fresh future for them.In a sense, they bring one another back to life. Their con-soling power,which lies in the mutuality of the inner experience and suffering after all the trauma, leads the characters to nirvana, the focus from the traumatic past to the present underway.
As the demonstration above, people respond to trauma distinctively and deserve various effects."The hardships have deep repercussions in the individual's internal world so that even if one is eventually freed from external bondage, the self will still be trapped in an inner world that prevents a genuine experience of freedom."If one can save themselves out of the inner illusion of bondage and face the reality despite the traumatic past and,the mortal trauma will be erased, nirvana beyond the trauma.

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